23rd August 2015

 

RD1W Relegation battle - final day permutations!

The final weekend of the season is set to be a tense and exciting occasion as seven sides battle to avoid the three relegation places.

The table as is currently stands has Ringwood, Langley Manor III and Bashley IV in the drop zone with Bashley dropping into the zone fort the first time this season following Brockehurst's superb 24-point win over Suttoners on Saturday:

  P W L Points Av
1 Winton 15 13 2 321     21.40
2 Farley 16 14 2 336     21.00
3 Winterbourne 16 13 3 319     19.94
4 Pylewell Park 16 12 4 300     18.75
5 Hyde 15 10 5 270     18.00
6 CBBEA 15 10 5 267     17.80
7 Suttoners II 16 8 8 245     15.31
8 Breamore 16 7 9 228     14.25
9 Mudeford II 15 7 8 209     13.93
10 Exbury 14 6 8 183     13.07
11 Godshill 16 6 10 209     13.06
12 Damerham 16 7 9 207     12.94
13 Sway II 15 5 10 187     12.47
14 Brockenhurst 16 6 10 199     12.44
15 Hythe & Dibden II 16 5 11 194     12.13
16 Bashley (Rydal) IV 15 5 10 180     12.00
17 Langley Manor III 15 4 11 162     10.80
18 Ringwood 15 1 14 98       6.53

The final games for the sides at the wrong end of the table are as follows:

Damerham Away to CBBEA
Bashley (Rydal) IV Home to Hyde
Sway II Away to Ringwood
Brockenhurst Away to Hythe
Langley Manor III Away to Farley
Hythe & Dibden II Home to Brockenhurst
Ringwood Home to Sway II

So starting from the bottom of the table as it currently stands, here are the permutations:

Ringwood

Ringwood are already relegated.

 

Langley Manor III

Mission almost impossible.

Need game at Farley to be on to have any chance.

Must win. If win with 24 points, need Hythe to score just 3 points or less v Brockenhurst.

Farley need to win to secure promotion and can still win title.

 

Bashley Rydal IV

Can stay up whether final game played or not.

If final game off, then stay up if Hythe score 9 or less OR Brockenhurst score 4 points of less.

If final game played, a 19 point win sees Bashley safe IF Brockenhurst score 12 or less points in defeat. A 15 point win sees them safe IF Hythe score 12 or less in defeat.

Bashley have three teams above but their thirds are playing local rivals Lymington and will be celebrating promotion to CD3.

 

Hythe & Dibden II

A total washout sees them safe.

If their game off, Bashley need 15 points to send Hythe down.

If game played, a win sees Hythe safe.

If Hythe lose, they will be safe if Bashley lose providing Langley Manor do not take 24 points at Farley.

If Hythe lose, they will be safe if Bashley win  - but only if they score 10 points more than Bashley (hard to see however how Bashley could win and only score 14-16 points).

If Hythe win they are almost certainly safe, 18 points would make them mathematically safe.

Hythe's 1st XI also need to win to secure promotion from CD3 (albeit they are playing the bottom side) so this will limit their selection options

 

Brockenhurst

A total washout sees them safe as does cancellation of their final game.

Any win sees them safe.

Defeat sees them relegated IF Sway score more points than Brock in their final game OR Bashley score 7 more points than Brock.

 

Sway

Sway are safe if final game cancelled.

Sway are safe if they win their final game.

Sway will be safe if Hythe beat Brock and Hythe and do not score 13 more points than Sway AND providing that Sway in defeat score 2 more runs than Brock. If Sway score 12 points they are safe whatever happens.

Sway will be safe if Brock beat Hythe as long as Brock do not score 17 more points than Sway OR Hythe in defeat do not score 4 more points than Sway. If Sway score 12 points they are safe whatever happens.

Sway will be safe if Bashley score 14 points or less OR if Bashley fail to score 7+ points more than Sway.

 

Damerham

Safe if final game cancelled.

Five points sees them mathematically safe.

Can only go down if Bashley win well and the winner

Safe if Bashley lose OR if Hythe beat Brockenhurst AND Brock do not score 7 points in defeat than Damerham.

 

Summary

With Langley Manor pretty much up against it, all attention will turn to Jones Lane for what should be a cracking match. Whilst whoever wins is guaranteed to be safe, Sway will be sweating on the result. With a fast outfield and short boundaries, the possibility of a 24/12 or a 12/24 points score is a real possibly  where both side sides score over 200 and both sides bowl each other out. Such a result would be a nightmare scenario should Sway lose at Ringwood!

 

Disclaimer! Don't rely on this - brain exploding trying to work this out and errors more than likely!