Unlike CD4, we have gone for a purely statistical analysis for
RD2SW, Sway II's league for 2012.
The analysis started
by looking at fortunes of the division's 18 clubs over the last
decade. Their finishing positions were as follows:
|
|
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Alderholt
|
RD2 - 10 |
RD2 - 10 |
RD2 - 3 |
RD1 - 3 |
RD1 - 15 |
RD2 - 7 |
RD2 - 14 |
RD2 - 8 |
RD2 - 5 |
|
BAE
Systems |
RD3 - 4 |
RD2 - 17 |
RD3 - 8 |
RD3 - 1 |
RD2 - 15 |
RD2 - 11 |
RD2 - 12 |
RD2 - 14 |
RD2 - 14 |
|
Bransgore
II |
RD4 - 11 |
RD4 - 4 |
RD4 - 1 |
RD3 - 13 |
RD3 - 8 |
RD2 - 13 |
RD2 - 18 |
RD3 - 2 |
RD2 - 4 |
|
Brockenhurst |
RD3 - 5 |
RD3 - 6 |
RD3 - 1 |
RD2 - 2 |
RD1 - 4 |
CD4 - 16 |
RD2 - 8 |
RD2 - 8 |
RD2 - 5 |
|
Cadnam II |
RD2 - 16 |
RD3 - 7 |
RD3 - 4 |
RD2- 16 |
RD3 - 5 |
RD2 - 17 |
RD3 - 3 |
RD2 - 10 |
RD2 - 12 |
|
Damerham |
RD4 - 4 |
RD3 - 15 |
RD3 -18 |
RD4 - 5 |
RD4 - 1 |
RD3 - 10 |
RD3 - 3 |
RD2 - 16 |
RD3 - 1 |
|
Exbury
|
RD1 - 17 |
RD2 - 7 |
RD2 - 15 |
RD2 - 12 |
RD2 - 18 |
RD3 - 6 |
RD3 - 6 |
RD3 - 5 |
RD3 - 4 |
|
Fawley
III |
RD3 - 6 |
RD3 - 16 |
RD4 - 4 |
RD3 - 9 |
RD3 - 14 |
RD3 - 8 |
RD3 - 5 |
RD2 - 11 |
RD2 - 7 |
|
Godshill
|
RD2 - 11 |
RD2 - 12 |
RD2 - 9 |
RD2 - 13 |
RD2 - 12 |
RD2 - 3 |
RD2 - 2 |
RD2 - 9 |
RD2 - 8 |
|
Lymington
III |
RD2 - 15 |
RD2 - 14 |
RD2 - 13 |
RD2 - 18 |
RD3 - 12 |
RD3 - 16 |
RD4 - 1 |
RD3 - 6 |
RD3 - 3 |
|
Milford
on Sea |
RD3 - 15 |
RD3 -15 |
RD3 - 11 |
RD3 - 7 |
RD3 - 9 |
RD3 - 2 |
RD2 - 6 |
RD2 - 6 |
RD2 - 10 |
|
Mudeford
II |
RD3 - 2 |
RD2 - 9 |
RD2 - 10 |
RD2 - 7 |
RD2 - 3 |
RD1 - 12 |
RD1 - 15 |
RD2 - 13 |
RD2 - 15 |
|
New
Milton III |
RD4 - 5 |
RD3 - 14 |
RD3 - 7 |
RD3 - 4 |
RD3 - 11 |
RD3 - 3 |
RD2 - 15 |
RD2 - 12 |
RD2 - 9 |
|
Parley
III |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
RD3 - 1 |
|
Ringwood |
RD3 - 3 |
RD2 - 3 |
RD1 - 13 |
RD1 - 18 |
RD2 - 11 |
RD2 - 9 |
RD2 - 9 |
RD2 - 4 |
RD2 - 6 |
|
Soton
Travellers |
RD2 - 14 |
RD2 - 11 |
RD2 - 18 |
RD3 - 8 |
RD3 - 4 |
RD2 - 10 |
RD2 - 16 |
RD3 - 2 |
RD2 - 8 |
|
Swan
Green |
RD3 - 16 |
RD3 - 2 |
RD2 - 1 |
RD2 - 14 |
RD2 - 7 |
RD2 - 12 |
RD2 - 3 |
RD2 - 5 |
RD2 - 11 |
|
Sway II
(P) |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
RD4 - 16 |
RD4 - 10 |
RD4 - 7 |
RD4 - 5 |
RD4 - 1 |
RD3 - 2 |
|
Interesting
facts to emerge from the jumble of data above are as
follows. Only 1 team of the teams has played in the
Championship Divisions in last decade; Brockenhurst in
2008 prior to their double relegation. Only 5 teams have
played in RD1 in last decade: Alderholt 2006-2007,
Brockenhurst 2007, Exbury 2003, Mudeford II 2008-9,
Ringwood 2005-2006. Cadnam II and Damerham have been
either promoted or relegated in 6 of the last 10
seasons. Only Godshill have remained in RD2 throughout
the last decade, however, this may well be because they
are ineligible for promotion as they finished runners-up
in 2009. Only one team (Exbury), is in a lower
division than it was 10 years ago. 5 clubs are in the
same division, 8 are up 1 division and 4 (Sway II, NM
III, Damerham & Bransgore II) are up 2 divisions.
So in order
to try and get some measure of the success or otherwise
of these clubs and their possible chances for 2012, the
position for each year was allocated a ranking point,
hence a finish of 3rd in RD2 would get a much higher
ranking score than a finish of 8th in RD4. The results
of this simple analysis are as follows:
|
|
|
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
|
Total |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Alderholt |
45 |
45 |
52 |
70 |
58 |
48 |
41 |
47 |
50 |
|
456 |
|
Brockenhurst |
32 |
31 |
36 |
53 |
69 |
75 |
47 |
47 |
50 |
|
440 |
|
Mudeford II |
35 |
46 |
45 |
48 |
52 |
61 |
58 |
42 |
40 |
|
427 |
|
Ringwood |
34 |
42 |
60 |
55 |
44 |
46 |
46 |
51 |
49 |
|
427 |
|
Godshill |
44 |
43 |
46 |
42 |
43 |
52 |
53 |
46 |
47 |
|
416 |
|
Swan Green |
21 |
35 |
54 |
41 |
48 |
43 |
53 |
50 |
44 |
|
389 |
|
Exbury |
56 |
48 |
40 |
43 |
37 |
31 |
31 |
32 |
33 |
|
351 |
|
Soton
Travellers |
41 |
44 |
37 |
29 |
33 |
45 |
39 |
35 |
47 |
|
350 |
|
BAE Systems |
33 |
38 |
29 |
36 |
40 |
44 |
43 |
41 |
41 |
|
345 |
|
Cadnam II |
39 |
30 |
33 |
39 |
32 |
38 |
34 |
45 |
43 |
|
333 |
|
Milford on
Sea |
22 |
22 |
26 |
30 |
28 |
35 |
49 |
49 |
45 |
|
306 |
|
Lymington
III |
40 |
41 |
42 |
37 |
25 |
21 |
18 |
31 |
34 |
|
289 |
|
New Milton
III |
14 |
23 |
30 |
33 |
26 |
34 |
40 |
43 |
46 |
|
289 |
|
Fawley III |
31 |
21 |
15 |
28 |
23 |
29 |
32 |
44 |
48 |
|
271 |
|
Bransgore II |
8 |
15 |
18 |
23 |
29 |
42 |
37 |
35 |
51 |
|
258 |
|
Damerham |
15 |
22 |
19 |
14 |
18 |
27 |
34 |
39 |
36 |
|
224 |
|
Sway II |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
3 |
9 |
12 |
14 |
18 |
35 |
|
91 |
|
Parley III |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
36 |
|
36 |
With the exception of Parley who only recently moved over to the
HCL from the Dorset League, Sway II are bar far the most
inexperienced club at this level and the only one who has never
played in RD2. Alderholt come out top - consistently
strong in the top half of RD2 with flirtations in RD1 and never
being down in RD3. Next up are Brockenhurst who scored highly
due to spells in RD1 and CD4 with only one year in RD3 back in
2003. Likewise Mudeford II's last spell in RD3 was way back in
2003. Godshill have been all over the place - up and down like
yo-yos no doubt partially due to their "border" position being
affected by regular league restructuring.
Past performance is of course no indicator of future success -
and the table above does not weight towards better performances
in more recent seasons - hence Bransgore II are lowly in the
table but finished 4th in RD2 in 2011 and must be a favourite
for promotion in 2012 - especially as Swan Green, Godshill and
Brockenhurst are probably ineligible.
